Election 2020 Scenarios

The 2020 Election is about 100 days out at the time of this writing, and the outcome will no doubt set up our country to undergo a metamorphosis. Presently, many headlines reflect the fear and uncertainty over election integrity and the possibility of a non-peaceful transition of power. Yes, the  Right Wire Report is speaking about the United States of America and not some third world Banana Republic.

Prognosticators expect turbulence ahead of November 3rd as we continue to see “Marxist revolutionaries” given a platform with media fawning and a marked increase in civil unrest, spiking numbers of COVID positive cases and emerging hot spots, and a predictable sell-off in the markets as the date approaches. Presidential elections are similar to choosing a romantic companion, one applies good faith and due diligence, and dots out the pros and cons then often goes with their gut feeling. Buyers’ remorse, however, is on the other side of the commitment. So shall we play a game?

Do you remember the 1970’s game – Mystery Date? The object of the game was to acquire all the necessary components of a desirable date and avoid the “Dud.” The player makes moves on the board, hoping to make their way to open a structural door to reveal the perfect “Date.” In our version, we will explore all the possible “Dates” that could end up waiting for Americans behind the door after the 2020 Election. For our proposition, the “Dates” will be political outcomes of voter’s choices. The Right Wire Report will let you the player determine if they are “Duds” or not.

Disclaimer: these are scenarios based on known variables. Any number of natural or nefarious events could impact each of the outcomes described.

Mystery Date Door 1: The Status Quo

President Trump, the Senate remains Republican, and the House remains Democrat (or could be reversed).

Gridlock: Trump will once again have his bold initiatives marginalized and mired down by cynical partisan politicians. The fever dream of impeachment remains blocked until midterm outcomes. 

Economy: Steadily rebounds, Tech companies continue to surge with telecom and energy sectors getting a boost as the pandemic recession is short-lived. Republicans will need to cajole offering spending to entice Democrats to sign on to any infrastructure, or tax cuts, and immigration, healthcare, and education reforms will only come at the margins by executive orders and regulatory changes which all can be undone once power shifts back. Without entitlement reforms, the debt and deficits rise, albeit at a slower pace.

Manufacturing booms under “America First” and “Buy American” policies, and overseas conglomerates will flock to U.S. soil to take advantage of tax and regulatory policy. Unemployment rate returns to pre-pandemic levels by Q4,2021 as job creation remains a constant. We will see Dow top 30k and then hover between 23k-25k as a sweet spot. The Federal Reserve will stay the course expanding the money supply, and the risk will remain of deflation, even hyperinflation, further debasing the currency, and interest rates hold or fall even lower.

Trade agreements:  China’s ebb and flow will depend on who they believe sweep midterms. If blue they will remain entrenched and additional tariffs will be levied, but if the opposite outcome looks probable they will begin engagement more diligently. Japan, India, and the United Kingdom will ink historic agreements fostering further realignment of allies to coalesce behind the U.S. policy to pressure China, Iran, and Russia, clipping aggressive wings and promoting mutual economic diplomacy. Trump’s victory strengthens geopolitical stability and Iran buckles and takes a seat at the table to hammer out a nuclear deal, notwithstanding hampering by the left each step of the way. Trump has an opportunity to start down that, Yellow Brick Road, no pun intended, as China is very much a factor in Iran negotiations.

National Security: Stay the course with draw-downs in Afghanistan (Neocons will try to stop), and U.S. military presence, while limited, will remain in Iraq to provide security and maintain gains in the region as a counterbalance to Iran, Russia, and China’s influence, and ISIS will remain in a box with a tight lid. United Nations and NATO will continue to reform, and more diffuse accountability will be validated. A “Middle East Peace Plan” will emerge with a 60/40 chance of getting signed, which restores the balance between a new coalition of partners that now include Israel and Saudi Arabia, providing deterrents and accountability built heavily on economic agreements and mutual prosperity. 

Courts: One, possibly two, more Supreme Court Justice picks before 2022 midterms and further expands the lower courts with more conservative judges. Religious Freedoms, Free Speech, and the Second Amendment will remain intact but under acute assault and perpetual defending. Antitrust issues and a significant play to regulate social media platforms will be at the forefront, and the border wall (537 miles) will be completed. Trump’s asylum policies stay in effect, and less illegal immigration continues.

The Resistance: Rinse wash and repeat the first term will be in order. The resistance will double down, and the “Deep State” will continue to weaponize media and government agencies in a rolling attempted coup his entire second term. The only caveat that changes this paradigm is if Justice hands down indictments and obtain convictions. The left will continue gas-lighting using race/class/intersectionality/ identity politics to advance their agendas, and if the GOP remains feckless and weak, they will be crushed in midterms and lose the Senate which will set up the impeachment and removal of the President before the end of his second term. But if Justice obtains convictions and the GOP act on policies, there could be a Red Wave midterm setting up a possible 2024 Republican President Victory.

Mystery Date Door 2: Biden 50/50

President Biden, the Senate remains Republican, and the House remains Democrat (or could be reversed).

Gridlock and hyper-partisanship: are entirely dependent on what degree the split ends up. If Senate gains a pro-Trump majority, but House maintains deep blue that allows passage of bills without GOP crossovers, we will still have a do-nothing Congress as legislation has no path to become a law. However, if Democrats flip seats further diluting GOP Senate control while the House gains progressive seats, Democrats could push through a Wealth Tax, Expansion of ACA, and expansion of entitlements nestled inside Stimulus Bills, or Omnibus bills.

Both scenarios guarantee Biden replenishes the federal bench with younger, liberal, activist judges, and Justice RBG would be able to retire safely, resulting in no shift of balance. Democrats will spend (just like the Republicans) with meager resistance from GOP, and the President’s pen will go into hyper-drive, creating all the initiatives that legislation could not bring to fruition as well as undoing almost everything signed by Trump as an executive order. Biden’s pen would legislate free speech, religious freedoms, and gun control and restore Title X and Planned Parenthood funding, read here.

Environmental justice regulations will be unleashed, but the latter split might hold Biden from widely utilizing regulations to essential place a carbon tax and wiping out the energy sector so moderate Democrats could hold on in the midterms. And a split more concentrated towards GOP might save off some radical taxation, educational, and immigration changes but again only temporarily. The split win would have Biden under immense pressure from the radical left to do what Obama did and bypass the legislative branch altogether. Debt and deficits will skyrocket following the trend of past administrations and reversals of asylum laws and return to catch and release means increased crossings and illegals welfare benefits.

Economy: Biden will attempt to overhaul the tax system in a more progressive direction, and the only thing standing between Trump’s middle-class tax relief and tax hikes will be the Republican Senate and threat of midterm bloodbath. History reveals the GOP has a dismal track record of capitulating to the Democrats when they have the White House and the House. So expect a Republican Senate to compromise to save the Death tax and Corporate tax by giving way on the capital gains tax fight, which, along with Biden’s massive regulatory compliance additions, will chill economic engines. The only budget that gets slashed is the military. The markets may react to a Biden win with relief at first that a complete Blue Wave was avoided and may maintain marginally positive if not lethargic, but the Dow will drop and stay around 20K to 22K.

Like Obama, Biden’s administration will focus on creating government stimulus under the guise of pandemic recovery, but like” shovel ready jobs’, it will be a mirage of moving the same taxpayer dollar from one pocket to another with no new economic growth or new wealth to materialize. GDP will fall below 3%, and job creation will become anemic again. Investment capital will sit on sidelines, and the plunge protection team and flat line interest rates will weaken the dollar, and we will see an economy like the Obama years but more sluggish because the economic pandemic wipe-out was deeper than the 2008 recession. We might see some inflation rise but modestly.

Trade agreements: Any Trump deal that can be unraveled will be.TPP, Paris Climate Accords, and the Iran deal will be reconstituted. Biden will be mercilessly savaged by the radical left to pass anything he can that has components of The New Green Deal, but vulnerable Democrats and Republicans will block as much as they can. The WorldTrade Organization and United Nations will once again set U.S. Trade and Foreign policy and U.S. sovereignty will be at grave risk. A Biden Administration would be pro-China, pro-EU, Anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and a destabilization of the Trump policy gains in the Middle East are likely as the new coalition is pulled apart. The U.S. Military decoupling from the Middle East conflicts under Trump’s tenure would be reversed and bad actors like North Korea and nation-state common players and terrorist activity could bloom again, making the risk of U.S. military interventions more likely.

The Resistance: Will not fade, but like the GOP establishment and the Tea Party, expect the post-Biden win Democrats to suddenly start calling out the radical left’s tactics and pivot to tamp down mass violence to secure midterm victories. It remains doubtful if the radical elements in our streets can be controlled by the Democrat establishment. If the left follow their pattern, they will overreach and risk losing the House in the midterms.

Mystery Date Door 3: The Trump Renaissance 

President Trump, the Senate remains Republican, and the House flips Republican.

This would be a repudiation of the establishment political and media class and a stunning mandate in light of their efforts to bury this president. Presumably, a down-ticket Republican revival would materialize from voters choosing to send more pro-Trump politicians to Congress. In this scenario, the RINOs would have less sway/leverage on outcomes and, gridlock could give way to fruitful legislative measures. The policy initiatives that we could see sweeping changes or  become successful law are:

  • Immigration Reform: merit-based, ending Visa lottery and chain migration, and the DACA dilemma. Border Security and completion of a wall( 537 miles), read here. Decrease or even a hold on all legal immigration for the first 12 months of his term to facilitate COVID related unemployed issue.
  • Healthcare Reform: legislatively cements the changes the administration has already implemented developing a parallel track to the ACA, here, and here. SCOTUS rules on constitutionality brought by states followed by Congress vote to repeal ACA, in its entirety, and pass a series of healthcare laws to improve; the standard of care, access, affordability, while maintaining coverage for pre-existing and implement portability of benefits. There will be legislative changes to Medicaid/Medicare and the V.A., which continue the success already obtained through executive orders and regulation reforms in increasing access and choice, lowering prescription costs, and curbing waste and fraud. Read here, here, here and here.
  • Education
  • expands Charter and school choice attaching the dollars to the student and addressing student loan debt, here. Expands vocational/apprenticeship models and public-private partnerships to retrain workers with skills needed to compete in new markets, here.
  • Infrastructure and Technology: passes substantial stimulus bill on infrastructure, transportation projects, rebuild roads, bridges, railways, and other vital infrastructure. Broadband deployment projects in rural communities, water, and waste upgrades, power, and electric projects and levee protection in flood zones will be a priority, here. 
  • Tax Reform: A second term means Trump will extend some of the tax policies that are set to expire and further reduce taxation on the middle class to rocket fuel boost pulling up from the COVID induced recession presently. A duration of time where changes to the payroll tax will be implemented as well. Read here and here. A further amount of repatriated dollars will also return to U.S. soil. 

Economy: The trifecta means more deregulation, deeper tax cuts, new trade deals, expansion of the economy. GDP pushes to 4%-5% by Jan.2020 and interest rates remain steady or lower until after 2022 midterms then may increase by a point or two. Inflation will remain at present levels or only slightly higher. The Dow will reach historical highs but will also be reactive, see-sawing between dips as low as 22k at times and over 30K briefly. The U.S. Dollar will strengthen slightly, but the additional wealth creation and venture capital investments will have the market still volatile. Calculated political moves to weaponize the pandemic to hurt Trump’s reelection chances will no longer be an obstacle, and Job growth will once again explode with unemployment dropping precipitously..

Buy American, strategic tax incentives, securing manufacturing stateside, and preparatory stimulus mode for the next time a pandemic arises will bring the unemployment numbers back to where they were in Jan. 2020 by July 2021. There will be an explosion of new startups connected to healthcare reforms, Infrastructure Stimulus, Technological new horizons, and energy and space sectors exploration. However, without serious entitlement reform, streamlining of agencies, and balancing budgets, the country will continue to see soaring debt and deficits. It is doubtful if Trump makes a run at serious entitlement reforms, but if he does, it will happen after Midterms and dependent on the outcome of them. As a wild prediction, it is possible in his second term that Trump attempts to renegotiate the U.S. Debt and make some serious down payment on it with funds collected from the tariffs from Trade negotiations. If he does move on entitlement reform, and that is unlikely, in 2023, he may be open to a minimum tax on the upper scale of highest earners, for a limited period that has a sunset clause and will only be allocated to pay down debt directly.

Trade Agreements: The Republican sweep pressures China to seek to leverage other countries for support and the stalemate over the existing trade deal will move at a snail pace, but it will move. Expect an even more aggressive, anti-China stance, amid greater U.S. voter wariness of China and ratcheting up tariffs while making successful trade deals with other countries who in turn, will hold the line against China’s bullying (advantage USA) read here. Trump will further reshape the WTO as he has done with NATO and the U.N. and continue to achieve better efficacy and fairness and reciprocation of funds.

Prepare for a whirlwind of successful trade deals like the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) to replace NAFTA, United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and the trade pact with Japan part 1, which set up his foreign policy attached to mutual economic goodwill. In a second term, he will seek to finalize the Quad countries (the United States, Japan, India, and Australia) on the sidelines of ASEAN in Manila. He will also sign a monumental trade deal with the United Kingdom. The high expectation of a possible Middle East Peace Plan will most likely include modest trade components as well, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. Read here and here.

It should be noted that counter-forces such as China, Russia, E.U., and back home the chamber of commerce, will still be formidable and do what they can to throw wrenches in the above trade negotiations as they attempted during his first term. Many politicians on both sides of the aisle ran interference for those entities as well. The makeup of the Republican wins will determine if that kind of donor class/lobbying/establishment resistance remains acute. 

Foreign policy: Expect a continuation of economic diplomacy to grow new alliances and strengthen old ones through mutual prosperity, and a have on hand a whopping huge stick (military might) that no one would wish to challenge. Trump rebuilt the military and strategic defenses and signed the budget to do such increasing deficits, read here. He will continue this spending on national defense in several arenas, Space Force, Cyber Security, Naval, Air, and asymmetrical warfare capabilities, as well as biological warfare capabilities and defense.

Trump, U.S. military, along with coalition forces destroyed the ISIS Caliphate while keeping a small contingency of special operations in Iraq to keep ISIS and other bad actors in the region in check. Anticipate a drawdown of troops from the entire region, including Afghanistan, where Pakistan and India will become the policemen of that region again, with our ability to reconstitute force if needed. Trump will attempt to lessen the active U.S. Military footprint stationed in several countries, including South Korea, Japan, and Germany. It should be noted his policy calls for a realignment, not a complete removal of U.S. Troops stationed across the globe, and an emphasis on U.N. coalition partners to fund our protective services more equitably. As his first term, he will continue to avoid all war footing traps and interventionist roles.

Trump was prolific with arms deals, Saudi Arabia, Patriot missiles for Balkans defense, Israel, South Korea, India, and more, and this will continue. He pulled out of IMF Nuclear Treaty due to Russia’s non-compliance, the second term yields a new deal inked. As discussed in Status Quo Scenario, Iran will negotiate a deal on the nuclear program, and North Korea (a proxy for China) will possibly advance the ball towards disarmament or at least continue to stand down on long-range launched threats. As discussed in the Status Quo Scenario, a Middle East Peace deal could occur, but now at an 80/20 chance of being implemented.

Courts: By inaugural day 2021, Trump would have placed approximately 200 judges on the bench. This number would swell during his second go-around, and his legacy may secure at least one in three judges would be a Trump appointee. The two oldest Supreme Court Justices are hyper-liberal activists, and Trump has a real shot of replacing both changing the makeup of the court providing “conservatives” a 7-2 margin. The third oldest Justice is Thomas, who has been chomping at the bit to retire, so count on Trump, replacing him with an originalist like Thomas, which does not further alter the ideological balance of the court. There is no doubt that a Trump clean sweep would, in some number, change the activist court to a less activist court and secure a conservative majority for the next 20 years.

Social issues: Republican majorities would end all taxpayer funding to planned parenthood and possibly pass a stronger version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. They would not attempt to overturn Roe v Wade but definitely will seek to federally ban late-term abortions in the second and third trimester in clinic settings lacking medical emergency capabilities. Any measure would allow late-term abortions in hospital settings where two physicians ethically review and agree on the procedure. They will also try to pass The Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. Prison reform and addiction issues will continue to be a priority, herehere and here. The Trump Justice department shattered all (NICS) criminal background check records previously, and criminals charged with unlawful possession of a firearm have increased 23 percent. On Civil Rights, there will continue to be an emphasis on all American’s rights, and a key mission will continue to combat human trafficking, read herehere, and here.

Advocating that transgender transitions not be federally funded while in military service and religious adoption agency’s right to decline to offer gay adoptions will remain policy. ( not all adoption services).After prosecuting the first victim targeted because of gender identity under the Hate Crimes Prevention Act expect Trump’s Justice to protect LGQTB communities in this manner. He appointed the first openly Gay Ambassador to Germany and sexual orientation would not be a handicap to advancement in a Trump administration. Trump would be open to renegotiating a new deal to address environmental concerns with other countries but, he will not pass a New Green Deal or any economically burdensome Climate Change bill. Trump will continue his stated record on expanding energy sources (pipelines and nuclear) and states he is committed to clean air, here, and here.

The reelection of Trump with a clear mandate will cause The Resistance to implode but not before one last final birth of eternal angst and suicidal destruction. Like the first election, they will mobilize within hours to days dependent on race results becoming official, and there will be a final Glorious Frat/Sorority Rush party. However, unlike his first election, this psychotic meltdown and the criminal acts that follow will no be tolerated, not even an inch. This crescendo may result in true carnage in mass proportions if the Democrat establishment chooses division over unity and does not condemn the violence this time as midterms will be at stake and never more vital to the Democrats hope to regain some power back.

One thing is certain a Red Wave in 2020 will finally put an end to the whipped up anarchists and nihilists, causing insurrection in our streets simply because they will be met with force and stopped. Trump will continue to uphold the constitutional right of every American to redress their government peacefully, but the “Marxist revolutionaries” will be shown the door with the electorate support. Another aspect of Trump’s full hand is that the media will scramble to salvage the few operations still solvent at the time of the election. Expect sudden replacements of prime time activist hosts, producers, editors with “Journalists” with new faces hoping to gain credibility and repositioning the narrative left but less gas-lighting and less fake news segments, in an attempt to survive and keep the voters as an audience.

If historic trends follow suit, there will almost certainly be a loss of the House majority come 2022, but count on the Republicans to expunge Trump’s Impeachment record in the first two years. Trump and the Republican Senate are on record that they would not use the “Nuclear Option” and end the Filibuster.

Mystery Date Door 4: Biden Smack-down 

President Biden, the Senate flips Democrat, and the House remains Democrat.

A Biden takes all would provide Democrats with a clear mandate, and gridlock would no longer be an issue as one of the first things Biden and the Democrats would do is choose the “nuclear option” abolishing the filibuster rule in the Senate. The opposition party would be completely powerless, and the move would essentially negate the true deliberative function of the Senate, making the voices of all Americans who voted that did not win moot. This socialist progressive Clarion call would prompt anxiety that unfriendly business policies, higher corporate and personal taxes, and a tsunami of regulatory compliance statutes were about to roll over the economy. There should be no misunderstanding, a Biden sweep means a bigger government and more statism. The policy initiatives that we could see would be transformative changes. Here is a list of these potential changes if they become successful in law:

  • Tax Reform: repeal the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. For comparison, HRC proposed 1 trillion in new taxes in 2016, but Biden is proposing 4 trillion over ten years in new taxation. Read herehere and here, for a breakdown of taxes on middle-class earners and other brackets, including the doubling of corporate tax and capital gains tax. Increase the inheritance tax and introduce a new form of energy tax (carbon tax), a new minimum tax on smaller businesses, double tax on overseas income, and further embedded taxation. 
  • Medicare For All:- Biden’s website floats a hybrid of keeping ACA but also offering Medicare for all option, here.,and here. Taking the rose-colored glasses off, and you should, his trifecta win means the hard left will push to scrap ACA and pass Medicare for all, here and here.
  • Universal Child Care and In-Home Elder Care: $775 billion over ten years in rebuilding and fortifying the nation’s caregiving economy, here.
  • Green New Deal: ($51 to $93 trillion over a decade) and establish a reinforced environmental agency. Biden has already pledged 1.7 trillion down payment and Climate Justice Division within the U.S. Department of Justice, here and here.
  • Essentially defund police, here
  • Immigration Reform: End current asylum policies, allow catch and release, support Sanctuary Cities, end detentions and deportations, reverse public charge rule allowing full welfare benefits including healthcare to illegals, amnesty and citizenship to “dreamers” and their extended family members, Increase refugee admissions by 700 percent, here.
  • Increase the federal minimum wage – to $15.
  • Ban the manufacture and sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, regulate the possession of existing assault weapons under the National Firearms Act. Hold gun manufacturers accountable so they can be held civilly liable for their products.
  • Open to Slavery reparations, here.
  • 21st Century Energy Act.
  • End Cash Bail for low-income minorities.
  • Abolish electoral college.
  • Title I for postsecondary education grants and Universal pre-k and kindergarten. Make public colleges and universities tuition-free for all families with incomes below $125,000, here.
  • Erase student loan debt, end school choice, and abolish all charter schools.
  • Abolish the suburbs with AFFH regulations.
  • Congressman Clyburn’s 10-20-30 Plan and Bobby Scott’s SAFE Justice Act.
  • Voting Rights Advancement Act.
  • Equality Act.
  • LGBTQ Essential Data Act.
  • Protecting the Right to Organize Act’s (PRO Act).

Courts: Review SCOTUS in 50/50 scenario and add that a Biden trifecta could also result in the packing of the courts. Something Democrat leaders have been vocal about, read here. Biden may get RBG and Thomas in the first term, which results in a shift in balance.

Trade Agreements:  Refer to Biden 50/50 scenario noting that Biden would be pro-China on trade and should be expected to align with the Obama trade era polices. The support for the International Criminal Court could mean the legislative passage of less sovereignty.

Economy and Geopolitical: Review Biden 50/50 scenario, but one must now consider the degree of taxation, spending, and regulations heaped on the back of economic drivers. The grand slam win runs the real possibility of an FDR-like the progressive new, new deal that sinks us into a prolonged depression. In terms of energy regulation, we could expect to see a pro-coal, anti-renewable majority on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and preferential hiring for minorities in new affirmative action plans. Net Neutrality and Antitrust issues also will be revisited. 

The degree of risk of entering a new war also escalates in a smack-down win as Biden will need to navigate appeasing the establishment against his domestic drag far left. This friction and tension will allow bad actors across the world to challenge and test Biden’s resolve with allies, which sets up a possible tinder box event to propagate military conflict.

The Resistance: Emboldened the radical left will seek to hold hostage a Biden presidency as long as he has the House and the Senate. Violence, fear, and threatening worked, and they will not stand down and wait patiently for the voters to choose their way-they will use brute force now. The 2022 midterms should be a complete Republican take over but only if we still have fair elections and the Constitutional Republic standing. Granted, those who voted for the smack-down mandate feel very strongly and support the transformation of our Republic into something far different than it has been, but now the resistance only shifts to those fighting to save the Republic from a path to communist rule.

It must be pointed out in both scenarios where Biden wins the Vice President will become the de facto president. There is no skirting Biden’s evident cognitive decline. As well as, Trump will be 74 if reelected and 78 when he exits the office and could begin to show a cognitive decline during that span. 

Mystery Date Door 5: Contested Chaos

Sadly, this is the most likely scenario with the surreal political climate we find ourselves. Here are some scary summaries to consider. We should expect no official results the night of the election, including many down tickets, and by some chance, one of the candidates does beat the fraud percent margin and the delay tactics needed to give a victory speech we can all breathe a sigh of relief. There have been only four times in history the presidential election day did not end in a declared winner, and it may be weeks or months to sort it out. The Supreme Court may become involved again as they did in 2000. 

Presently, the left is convinced that Trump will refuse to leave office if declared the non-winner, something they charged in 2016, but it was the Democrats who could not accept the election outcome. This nightmare scenario could result in Trump winning a Democrat contested win or Biden doing so with Trump and Republicans claiming massive fraud. Both sides have surmounted legal teams for a fight. Narrow margins in swing state wins will have recounts, and there will be claims of ballots suddenly showing up or being lost in the mail. This novel writes itself but there is one chapter you may not have even considered: There is a TIE, read here.

These are five general scenarios of the outcome of the 2020 elections. There could be many permutations of these scenarios. For sure, you may have additional thoughts as we approach the most important election of our time. So which door do you think is most likely, and is the “Mystery Date” a dud or not?

image RWR original article syndication source.