Georgia Democrats Lean on ‘Changing’ Demographics to Flip State Blue

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Analysis by Rich Benjamin in Slate Magazine found that in the GOP-stronghold of Forsyth County, Georgia, President Donald Trump lost ground to Democrat Joe Biden compared to 2016 election totals.

Democrat insiders in Forsyth County credit “changing” demographics as partially responsible for the decline in Trump’s margin but also point to the region as a broader tale of Georgia’s electorate.

Benjamin writes in Slate:

And yet: Trump carried Forsyth with 66 percent of the vote this year, compared with 72 percent in 2016. That shift can be attributed to an influx of new residents who are skewing more Democratic, paired with moderate Republicans unwilling to vote for Trump, according to internal data collected by the county Democratic Party. [Emphasis added]

“If one is looking at the election results from afar, an outsider would go, ‘Well, this is a heavily Republican county,'” says Cohen. “But what they need to do is look beneath the surface. Biden increased Democrats’ share of the county vote compared to 2016 by how he ran his campaign deftly appealing to suburban independents, how local activists energized our voters, how the pandemic and dissatisfaction with Trump drove up turnout, and how the county’s demographics are changing.” [Emphasis added]

The demographics that drove Bourdeaux’s victory may help the Warnock and Ossoff campaigns. Over the past decade, Georgia’s population increased by 10 percent, following an 18 percent increase the prior decade. This surge includes a “new American majority,” a term adopted commonly by scholars, labor unions, and strategists. The “new American majority” includes Georgia residents who are 18 to 29 years old, unmarried women, and/or people of color. That “new American majority” is said to make up 53 percent of the state’s total registered voters. [Emphasis added]

Benjamin writes that “long-term demographic shifts are politically realigning Georgia and other Southern states,” a realignment that the state’s Democrat insiders are taking note of. Democrat Stacey Abrams’ “New Georgia Project,” for instance, has said to have registered almost half a million non-white voters ahead of the Senate runoff election.

Previously, the New York Times acknowledged that Democrats are “counting on demographic changes” in Georgia to unseat Loeffler and Perdue. Specifically, Democrats are looking to foreign-born voters from Asia to boost their margins.

In 2000, Asians accounted for 2.1 percent of Georgia’s population. In 1990, they accounted for just 1.1 percent of the state’s population. By 2020, though, their share has increased to 4.3 percent and in counties like Forsyth and Gwinnett, they account for 14.5 percent and 12.4 percent of all residents.

The New York Times and a Washington Post columnist have recently acknowledged that Democrats are leaning heavily on the results of mass immigration to Georgia to flip the state blue as they have done in Virginia and Orange County, California.

“The emergence in Georgia of Asian-American voters is a potential bright spot for a Democratic Party counting on demographic changes to bring political wins across the country,” the Times reported last month.

Analysis by The Atlantic‘s Ronald Brownstein has previously revealed that congressional districts with a foreign-born population above the national average, a little more than 14 percent, have a 90 percent chance of being won by Democrats over Republicans.

The number of foreign-born voters and their voting-age children in Georgia has boomed by 337 percent between 2000 to 2020. Meanwhile, the native-born voting-age population in Georgia has increased by just 22 percent over that same period.

If legal immigration levels are not reduced, the U.S. will have imported about 15 million new foreign-born voters by 2040. Those 15 million new foreign-born voters include about eight million who will have arrived through chain migration.