According to the survey,
taken August 28 to September 2, Trump is strengthening in the Lone Star State, leading his Democrat opponent by two percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent. According to the Dallas Morning News, that represents a significant shift in the president’s direction, given that he trailed the former vice president by five points in July.
“Trump is ahead,” Mark Owens, the poll’s director, said. “Trump is helped by Cornyn.”
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) currently leads his Democrat opponent MJ Hegar by 11 percentage points.
Dallas Morning News:
The poll, conducted Aug. 28 to Sept. 2, surveyed 1,176 registered voters. Of those, 901 said they are “extremely likely” to vote in November. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.87 percentage points for the bigger group, and 3.22 points for the subset of likely voters.
The news is better for Biden among registered voters, and since elections hinge on enthusiasm and turnout, it’s worth paying attention to all potential voters and not just those who are already sure to cast ballots.
Biden leads 44-43 with that broader group, though he led by 5 points two months ago.
Of that group, Biden leads Trump among independents, 39 percent to 30 percent. He also garners 53 percent of the Hispanic vote, 75 percent of the black vote, and 34 percent of the white vote compared to Trump’s 26 percent, 10 percent, and 57 percent, respectively.
While Texas has voted for a Republican in every presidential election since 1980, Democrats have been making strides in the Lone Star State, gradually moving its status to a toss-up. Texas Democrats believe Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) may be able to make their goal of flipping Texas blue a reality.
The Texas Tribune
Though Harris’ selection may have eroded any hope for progressives that Biden would choose someone from the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren-led wing, others in the party are hoping Harris can get more suburban women to the polls and can help hone Biden’s pitch to Black voters, a bloc that needs to turn out in strong numbers if Democrats are going to have a chance in the state.
While the RealClearPolitics average shows a tight race in the Lone Star State, where Trump currently edges out Biden by 3.5 percent, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nine percentage points in 2016.
The change of pace in Texas comes as Biden loses his grip in key swing states across the country in recent weeks, from
North Carolina to Pennsylvania to Florida, three states the president carried in 2016.