Poll: President Trump Leads Joe Biden by 5 Points in Iowa


When minor party candidates on the ballot are included, the president’s lead is three points, 47 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins each receiving one percent of the vote.

The poll also shows that Democrat challenger Theresa Greenfield has a one point lead over incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), 46 percent to 45 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

The Data for Progress poll of 743 likely voters was conducted between September 23 and September 28, and has a 3.6 percent margin of error.

The poll does not provide a breakdown of respondents by party affiliation, but states, “The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history.”

President Trump easily won Iowa’s six electoral college votes in 2016, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton by nine points, 51 percent to 42 percent.

However, recent polling in the Hawkeye State indicates the 2020 presidential contest may be closer.

Currently, the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls shows Joe Biden with a one half of one percent lead over President Trump in Iowa.

Data for Progress, which describes itself on its website as “a multidisciplinary group of experts using state-of-the-art techniques in data science to support progressive activists and causes,” also asked a number of leading questions about policy decisions, which poll respondents answered as follows:

  • 72 percent support and 15 percent oppose “a $2 trillion jobs program focused around rebuilding American infrastructure and public health capacity to recover from the Coronavirus emergency.”
  • 75 percent support and 17 percent oppose “Congress increasing funding to protect the United States Postal Service and ensure on time delivery for things like prescriptions, agricultural necessities, and social security checks.”
  • 55 percent support and 27 percent oppose “federal investments to achieve a 100% carbon pollution-free electricity sector by 2035.”

Data for Progress has a B- rating as a pollster, according to ratings of polling firms conducted by Fivethirtyeight.com.