poll, published by the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute, and conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Associates, surveyed 880 likely voters online from Sep. 2 to Sep. 7, and has a margin of error of 3.5%.
The results reflect the overwhelmingly liberal political convictions of the Jewish electorate, which have not changed for generations. The last Republican to win the Jewish vote was Warren H. Harding, a century ago.
The turning point is commonly thought to be the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. However, past
estimates of Jewish support for Republican candidates suggest that the real shift came during the administration of Calvin Coolidge, when the country passed new restrictions on immigration in 1924 that left many Jews in Europe. Some of those who advocated for the new restrictions did so in antisemitic terms.
FDR’s ascent in 1932 cemented the loyalty of American Jews, fortified by New Deal programs that the Jewish community broadly supported — and despite the Roosevelt administration’s initial reluctance to help Jews in Nazi Europe.
In recent years, allegiance to the Democratic Party has dominated even other issues of concern to the Jewish community, such as support for Israel.
“Jewish voters prioritize domestic policy issues over Israel when asked which issues are most important,” the poll found. “Less than one-fifth of respondents said Israel is the one of the most important issues when deciding which candidate to support.”
Nevertheless, the 30% result for Trump would be historically high, if the election were held today.
estimates indicate that Trump’s 30% would be the best result since President George H.W. Bush won 35% of the Jewish vote in 1988.
Republican nominee Mitt Romney also reached 30%, in 2012. Trump is estimated to have won about 24% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so 30% represents a significant improvement.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). His new book, RED NOVEMBER , tells the story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary from a conservative perspective. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.