In Sunday’s electoral college projection, the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll now projects Wisconsin as an electoral college win for President Trump.
“Wisconsin is the last of the swing rust belt states to reach a tipping point on law and order,” Democracy Institute Polling Director Patrick Basham told Breitbart News in an exclusive interview.
Even before the Kenosha riots, public approval for the Black Lives Matter in Wisconsin
dropped precipitously in the two months between the Marquette Law School Poll conducted in early June, which showed Black Lives Matter protests enjoyed a 61 percent approval to 36 percent disapproval rating among likely voters, and early August, when the same poll showed Black Lives Matter protests approval ratings dropped to 48 percent, while disapproval increased to 48 percent, a drop in net approval of 25 points.
Law and order/riots/violence was the single top issue on the minds of poll respondents, with 37 percent identifying it as “the most important issue” to them:
Q “Which issue is most important to you?”
o Law & order/riots/violence = 37%
o Economy/jobs = 27% o Education = 13% o Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 13% o Immigration = 10%
The poll documented changing attitudes towards Black Lives Matter, law and order/riots/violence, and defunding police, as poll respondents’ answers to the following questions indicate:
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”
o Black Lives Matter = 26%
o All Lives Matter = 74%
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”
o Approve 15%
o Disapprove 79% o Don’t Know 6%
Q “Do the violent protests in Wisconsin make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?”
o More likely = 26%
o Less likely = 10% o Makes no difference = 64%
Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”
o Too tough 23%
o Just right 33% o Not tough enough 44%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”
o Approve = 62%
o Disapprove = 38%
Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”
o Yes = 34%
o No = 64%
Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”
o Law & order = 72%
o Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%
Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”
o Yes = 16%
o No = 75%
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll also found a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump voters and Biden voters, as these two poll questions and responses indicate:
Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”
o Trump voters = 82%
o Biden voters = 40%
Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?
o Trump voters: positive vote = 85%; negative vote = 15%
o Biden voters: positive vote = 34%; negative vote = 66%
Notably, only three percent of Trump voters said their vote could change before election day, while nine percent of Biden voters said their vote could change before election day.
Among voters who initially identified as undecided, the poll found a significant number of “shy” Trump voters. Seventy-two percent of these undecided voters said “a relative, friend, or coworker plan[s] to vote for Trump,” while 28 percent said a relative friend or coworker did not plan to vote for Trump.
Only 25 percent of Trump voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote, while 86 percent of Biden voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote.
Fifty-seven percent of poll respondents believe President Trump will be re-elected, and 66 percent believe President Trump will win the first debate.
President Trump fared well in national job approval, with 52 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. The breakdown by party, age, religion, and ethnicity was:
Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval
o Republican = 86% o Democrat = 28% o Independent = 49%
Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval
o White = 58% o Black = 42% o Hispanic = 46%
Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval
o Men = 54% o Women = 48%
Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval
o Evangelical = 90% o Protestant = 62% o Catholic = 64% o Jewish = 33% o Atheist = 10%
Age – Trump’s National Job Approval
o 65 years & over = 58% o 45-64 years = 64% o 30-44 years = 45% o 18-29 years = 38%
Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval
o Married 63% o Single 31%
The Republican National Convention provided a much greater boost for the Trump-Pence ticket than the Democratic National Convention did for the Biden-Harris ticket.
Twenty-one percent of poll respondents said the Republican National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Trump-Pence ticket, while only eight percent of poll respondents said the Democratic National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Biden-Harris ticket.
Sixty-seven percent of poll respondents believed “the economy [is] rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown,” and 59 percent of respondents trusted Trump to do the best job handling the economy, while 41 trusted Biden.
Only 44 percent of respondents approved of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 48 percent disapproved.
By more than a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 31 percent, poll respondents said that Trump will do a better job of standing up to China than Biden.
By a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 33 percent, poll respondents want their local school to reopen soon.
Fifty-nine percent of poll respondents “think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia.”
Forty-eight percent of poll respondents say their “opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity” makes them less likely to vote for him.
Seventy percent of poll respondents say Trump is a strong leader, while 24 percent say Biden is a strong leader.
Biden has the edge in voter perceptions of consensus building, with 55 percent of respondents describing him as a “consensus builder,” a term only 20 percent apply to President Trump.
Fifty-nine percent say Biden is a likeable person, while only 32 percent say Trump is a likeable person.
Sixty-two percent say Biden, who is 77 years old, is too old to be president, while only 35 percent say President Trump, who is 74 years old, is too old to be president.
With barely two months until the November 3 presidential election, the most recent Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll results suggest that momentum in the race is moving swiftly towards President Trump and away from former Vice President Biden, and that reactions to the violent Black Lives Matter protests is the most significant explanation for that change.