Gallup Poll: American Confidence in Accuracy of Upcoming Election Matches Record Low

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The survey, taken September 14-28, among 1,023 adults, found U.S. confidence in the accuracy of the upcoming presidential election matching a record low, last seen in 2008.

“How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election — very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident?” the survey asked.

While a majority, 59 percent, indicated that they are either “very” or “somewhat” confident, that is down from the 70 percent who said the same around the 2018 election. Confidence varies drastically by party affiliation, with 74 percent of Democrat and Democrat-leaners expressing confidence but only 44 percent of Republican and Republican-leaners saying the same.

Gallup reported:

The 11-percentage-point drop since 2018 in the national figure on confidence in election accuracy is largely driven by a 34-point drop among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The GOP’s current 44% level of confidence is the lowest Gallup has recorded for identifiers/leaners of either major political party in its trend dating back to 2004.

Much of the lack of confidence is related to the mass move to vote-by-mail, with 55 percent viewing absentee ballots arriving late as a “major problem.” A majority, or 53 percent, also view “people casting fraudulent votes” as a “major” issue:

Forty-seven percent of U.S. adults say that eligible voters not being allowed to cast a vote is a big problem for the election — much higher than the 25% to 34% range Gallup recorded between 2004 and 2016. Forty-five percent say that ineligible voters casting votes is a major problem, similar to the previous high of 44% in 2008.

The rise in concern comes as stories emerge out of states like New Jersey and Virginia, feeding the worries of skeptics of mass mail-in voting.

In Virginia, for instance, the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) is investigating after mail was stolen out of multiple post office mailboxes.

In New Jersey, thousands of voters received incorrect mail-in ballots, listing the wrong congressional district. Similarly, over 2,000 L.A. County voters received ballots that were missing a section to vote for the office of the presidency.

Additionally, this week, authorities arrested a U.S. Postal Service mail carrier for allegedly dumping mail intended for residents of West Orange, New Jersey. The mail included blank mail-in ballots.